Due to the shelter-in-place order, sales of many taxable goods have declined.  As a result, according to initial estimates from TAMC's consultant, HdL Companies, Measure X sales tax revenues will decline below prior projections across at least the next three fiscal years (current year plus two). The projected result is a 22.7% decline from 2018/19 to 2019/20.. In 2020/21 revenues are expected to show a modest increase of 3.1%, and in 2021/22 a growth of 7.1% over the prior year.  However, annual revenues will still be below original projections for all three years.

Prior to Monterey County voters adopting Measure X in November 2016, revenues were conservatively estimated to be $20 million per year. Actual revenues have been higher, with 2018/19 receipts (the second full year of Measure X receipts) totaling $30.9 million. Following the estimated percentage changes noted above, net Measure X revenues will drop to $23.9 million in 2019/20, rise to $24.7 million in 20/21, then increase to $26.4 million in 21/22. These figures are approximately $10 million to $11 million below last year's projections, and are subject to change as the full implications of the COVID-19-related economic downturn are better understood.  The attached charts, which were prepared and authorized for public distribution by HdL Companies, show further details.  

Statewide, fuel tax revenues, the primary source of funding for state transportation programs, have also fallen.  This drop in revenues could delay the Agency's ability to fund and deliver projects.  The extent of this financial impact to SB 1 funding programs and the State Transportation Improvement Program is not yet known.  The next Measure X project slated to receive state funding is the Imjin widening project, which will seek an allocation of over $20 million in August.  

In order to comply with Monterey County and State of California shelter-in-place orders, all Transportation Agency staff have been working remotely since March 16, except to complete essential financial activities. Staff have been able to work remotely utilizing virtual private network (VPN) connections to their office computers and/or using internet based productivity applications. Working remotely has been facilitated by the Agency's recent transition from an in-office computer server to cloud-based file storage and data back up. Agency staff has been working with vendors to shift from paper invoices and payment checks to digital invoices and electronic fund transfer payments. TAMC was also one of the first government agencies to hold a video public meeting and has provided advice and assistance to others, including Monterey-Salinas Transit and the Fort Ord Reuse Authority.  Staff continues to refine these remote meeting techniques as experience with various software platforms, safeguards and public input strategies grows. 

The Safe Routes to School program is working on creative ways to continue to deliver its program during the shelter-in-place orders. Agency staff is working with Ecology Action to develop techniques to teach on-line bicycle and pedestrian safety lessons - particularly timely since walking and bicycling for exercise has increased. The Salinas Safe Routes to School project and the Every Child safety education projects are impacted by County of Monterey Health Department staff being transferred to address the County's COVID-19 response. Staff is working out which components of these programs can proceed within the shelter-in-place guidelines. 

Agency staff have been working closely with project sponsors and state regulatory agencies to address potential project delays due to the COVID-19 crisis. There are external risks to project schedules, such as the possibility that the shortened state legislative session could delay consideration of SB 1231 (Monning).  This TAMC-sponsored legislation will allow the mitigation of potential impacts to the Santa Cruz Long-Toed Salamander habitat resulting from the State Route 156-Castroville Boulevard Interchange project. Staff has recently received word that this legislation is one of three bills that Senator Monning will continue to carry forward as time-sensitive. Otherwise, the SR 156 project is still on schedule to be ready for construction in 2022.

The US 101 - South of Salinas project study was in the middle of a broad public outreach effort, which is now being reframed.  The team has already held a video meeting with the US 101 South of Salinas Traffic Safety Alliance, and are working to schedule video meetings with other stakeholder groups. In person outreach to harder-to-reach populations will be deferred until after the pandemic passes.  Traffic counts for the study's technical analysis are postponed until traffic returns to normal conditions, hopefully in the fall.

The California Transportation Commission is considering relaxing some of its timely use of funds requirements to take into account any project delays caused by the shelter-in-place order.  They are also considering delaying the due date for the Active Transportation Program grant applications, currently scheduled for mid-June.

The City of Marina is wrapping up the right-of-way phase for the Imjin Safety & Traffic Flow Improvements project, the first regional Measure X project to go to construction. Delays acquiring small parcels of right-of-way from public agencies and institutions may require the City to utilizing the relaxed California Transportation Commission rules. Overall the project is still expected to go out for construction bids later this summer. 

While Measure X monies are forecast to be significantly less over the next three years, the program's existing fund balance along with new revenues will allow the Measure X program of projects to stay on track to meet programmed local match requirements for the next four years. That said, the anticipated loss of gas tax revenues will have a definite impact on the ability to deliver Measure X projects, unless the State Transportation Improvement Program (STIP) and the various SB 1 programs are back-filled with a state or federal stimulus package.