Based on forecasting from the Transportation Agency's sales tax consultant, HdL Companies, Measure X receipts for the fourth quarter of 2020 (from October through December) were 4.1% below the fourth sales period in 2019. After accounting for the missing payments and other reporting issues, actual sales were down 2.7%.  The State’s response to the pandemic and the limitations it placed on travel and commuting had an immediate and negative effect on gas stations and restaurants. However, auto sales and construction activity conversely posted strong gains in this quarter.

The net effect is that Measure X sales tax revenues declined below prior projections this past fiscal year, but are forecast to rebound in subsequent years. The result is a 7.4% decline from $30.46 million of revenues in 2018/19 to $28.198 million 2019/20.  This new forecast is a significantly better return than the originally projected 22.7% decline due to anticipated losses from the COVID shelter-in-place. In 2020/21 revenues are expected to show an increase of 4.0% to $29.32 million, and in 2021/22 a further increase of 4.5% to $30.652 million. These figures are approximate to last year's projections, and are subject to change as the full implications of the COVID-19-related economic impacts are realized.

While the fluctuations in Measure X revenues as projected from the prior year presents challenges, the conservative approach taken by the Agency still provides full-funding for near-term projects as programmed in the 2021 Integrated Funding Plan (an update to the funding plan will be brought to the Board at the May 2021 meeting). 

The Measure X program's existing fund balance along with new revenues will allow the Measure X program of projects to stay on track to meet programmed local match requirements for the next five years.  Priority projects that are expected to start construction during this time frame include the Imjin Road Widening project, which uses $17 million of Measure X funds as match to a $19 million Senate Bill 1 Local Partnership Program grant, the Highway 218 Segment of the Fort Ord Regional Trail and Greenway, which uses $1.0 million of Measure X funds as a match to a $9.2 million Active Transportation Program grant, and the State Route 156 / Castroville Boulevard project, which received a $20 million Senate Bill 1 Trade Corridors grant that is matched with $300,000 of Measure X and $5 million of developer fees.