The State’s response to the pandemic and the limitations it placed on travel and commuting had an immediate and negative effect on sales at gas stations, hotels, and restaurants. However, auto sales and construction activity, along with online purchasing, conversely posted strong gains again in this quarter.

The net effect is that Measure X sales tax revenues exceeded prior projections this past fiscal year, and are forecast to remain steady in subsequent years. The result is a 7.4% decline from $30.46 million of revenues in 2018/19 to $28.198 million in 2019/20, and an increase of 13.1% in 2020/21 to $32.01 million.  This latest forecast is a significantly better return than the originally projected $30.109 million in 2020/21.  In 2021/22, a slight decrease of 4.5% to $30.665 million is expected, however this remains significantly higher than the original $20 million estimates for Measure X. These figures are approximate to last year's projections, and are subject to change as the full implications of the COVID-19-related economic impacts are realized.  The budget reflects COVID-19 Stay Home Orders that ended January 2021, statewide restrictions ending June 15, 2021, and a successful widespread vaccine deployment.

While the fluctuations in Measure X revenues as projected from the prior year presents challenges, the conservative approach taken by the Agency still provides full-funding for near-term projects as programmed in the 2021 Integrated Funding Plan (an update to the funding plan will be brought to the Board at the October 2021 meeting). 

The Measure X program's existing fund balance along with new revenues will allow the Measure X program of projects to stay on track to meet programmed local match requirements for the next five years.  Since 60% of the Measure X funds are allocated to the cities and County, these increased revenues will primarily accrue local road and street projects.  Priority regional projects that are expected to start construction during the five-year time frame include the Imjin Road Widening project, which uses $18.1 million of Measure X funds as match to a $19 million Senate Bill 1 Local Partnership Program grant, the Highway 218 Segment of the Fort Ord Regional Trail and Greenway, which uses $1.0 million of Measure X funds as a match to a $9.2 million Active Transportation Program grant, and the State Route 156 / Castroville Boulevard project, which received a $20 million Senate Bill 1 Trade Corridors grant that is matched with $389,000 of Measure X and $5 million of developer fees.