Coversheet


Agenda Item 5.


TRANSPORTATION AGENCY FOR MONTEREY COUNTY *Memorandum*

To:	Citizens Oversight Committee
From:	Michael Zeller, Director of Programming & Project Delivery
Meeting Date:	October 19, 2021
Subject:	Measure X Quarterly Revenue Forecast

RECOMMENDED ACTION:
RECEIVE update on the quarterly Measure X revenue forecasts and status of regional projects.

SUMMARY:
Measure X adjusted revenues from January through March 2021 were 8.6% above the same sales period in 2020. This revenue growth continues a trend of rebounding from the 2020 drop in revenues due to the COVID-19 shelter-in-place. Included with the staff report are revenue estimates by jurisdiction through fiscal year 2022/23.

FINANCIAL IMPACT:

Prior to Monterey County voters adopting Measure X in November 2016, revenues were conservatively estimated to be $20 million per year. Actual revenues have been significantly higher, with 2018/19 receipts (the second full year of Measure X receipts) totaling $30.5 million. Measure X revenues dropped to $28.198 million in 2019/20, but are projected to rise to $32.01 million in 20/21. Fiscal year 2021/22 revenues are projected to be slightly less, at $30.665 million.

DISCUSSION:

The State’s response to the pandemic and the limitations it placed on travel and commuting had an immediate and negative effect on sales at gas stations, hotels, and restaurants. Conversely, auto sales and construction activity, along with online purchasing, posted strong gains again in this quarter.

The net effect is that Measure X sales tax revenues exceeded prior projections this past fiscal year, and are forecast to remain steady in subsequent years. The latest 2020/21 revenue forecast of $32.01 million is significantly higher than the originally projected $30.109 million. In 2021/22, a slight 4.5% decrease to $30.665 million is expected, however this remains significantly higher than the original $20 million per year estimated for Measure X revenues. These projections are subject to change as the full implications of the COVID-19-related economic impacts are realized. The recent growth reflects the ending of the COVID-19 stay-at-home orders in January 2021, statewide restrictions ending June 15, 2021, and a successful widespread vaccine deployment.

Since 60% of the Measure X funds are allocated to the cities and County, the increased revenues will primarily accrue local road and street projects.

With regards to regional projects, the conservative approach taken by the Agency will provide full-funding for near-term projects as programmed in the 2021 Integrated Funding Plan (an update to the funding plan will be brought to the Board at the October 2021 meeting). The Measure X program's existing fund balance along with new revenues will allow the program of regional projects to stay on track to meet programmed local match requirements for the next five years.

Priority regional projects that are expected to start construction during the five-year time frame include:

Imjin Road Widening project, which uses $18.1 million of Measure X funds as match to a $19 million Senate Bill 1 Local Partnership Program grant;
Highway 218 Segment of the Fort Ord Regional Trail and Greenway, which uses $1.0 million of Measure X funds as a match to a $9.2 million Active Transportation Program grant; and,
State Route 156 / Castroville Boulevard project, which received a $20 million Senate Bill 1 Trade Corridors grant that is matched with $389,000 in Measure X monies and $5 million in developer fees.

ATTACHMENTS:
	Description
	Measure X First Quarter 2021 Update
	Measure X Local Road Maintenance Revenue Projections by Jurisdiction